Urea
Argus / CME
The world's most traded fertilizer: natural gas converted into 46 percent nitrogen and shipped by the bulk carrier.
Top Producers
share of 2024 urea production
Top Consumers
share of 2024 urea consumption
Main Uses
share of 2024 urea demand by end use (IFA)
Top Exporters
share of 2024 seaborne urea exports (IFA / Argus / Carnegie); China cut exports roughly 80 percent in 2024 under quota, leaving Russia the largest single exporter, with a normal-policy year putting China back near the top
Top Importers
share of 2024 seaborne urea imports (IFA / Argus)
World production
roughly 175 to 185 million tonnes
as of 2024
Nitrogen content
46 percent, the highest of any solid fertilizer
as of 2025
Gas share of production cost
roughly 60 to 80 percent
as of 2025
Persian Gulf share of seaborne exports
roughly 35 to 45 percent
as of 2026
Price range
roughly 300 to 400 dollars per tonne in 2023, back above 850 by April 2026
April 2026
Largest importer
India, via state tenders
as of 2025
Urea is the workhorse of the nitrogen world and the single most traded fertilizer on earth. At 46 percent nitrogen it carries more nutrient per tonne than any other solid, which makes it cheap to ship, and roughly 175 to 185 million tonnes are produced a year with tens of millions crossing borders. It is made by reacting ammonia with carbon dioxide, so a urea plant sits downstream of an ammonia plant, and ammonia is made from natural gas. That chain means urea is, in economic terms, natural gas in granular form: when gas is cheap urea is cheap, and when gas spikes urea spikes with it.
The market's defining feature of the 2020s has been Chinese export policy. China is the largest single producer, but Beijing restricted urea exports through quotas and outright pauses from 2023 into 2025 to protect domestic farmers and hold down food inflation, pulling millions of tonnes off the global market and keeping prices firmer than gas costs alone would suggest. China reopened exports under a strict quota in May 2025, reportedly with a price floor, but the on-again off-again policy has made Chinese availability the largest swing factor in the trade. India, the largest importer, runs the other side: its periodic state urea tenders are the single biggest demand events in the market and routinely set the global price for weeks.
Prices tell the story of the decade. Urea spiked toward 900 dollars a tonne in 2022 as European gas costs exploded, collapsed into a 300 to 400 dollar range through 2023, then firmed through 2024 and 2025 on Chinese export curbs and high gas. In 2026 the Strait of Hormuz crisis disrupted Gulf gas and shipping, with Qatar suspending urea and ammonia production and Iran halting ammonia, and urea ran back above 850 dollars a tonne by April, the highest since 2022. New capacity is arriving to ease the long-run squeeze: Nigeria's Dangote and Indorama plants and Gulf expansions add export tonnes that gradually dilute Chinese dominance.
How It Trades
| Venue | OTC physical against Argus, CRU, Profercy, and Fertilizer Week assessments; cleared swaps on CME |
| Benchmark contract | Argus FOB Egypt and FOB Middle East granular urea; CME urea (Egypt) and urea (US Gulf / Nola) swaps |
| Contract size | Physical cargoes of roughly 25,000 to 50,000 tonnes; CME swaps in 100-tonne lots |
| Price terms | USD per tonne, FOB at the loading hub or CFR at the destination (for example CFR Brazil) |
| Settlement | Physical delivery on the cargo; CME swaps cash-settle against the monthly average of the relevant Argus assessment |
| Typical curve | Strongly seasonal, firming ahead of northern-hemisphere spring and the Brazilian safrinha season; shape is driven by tenders and gas, not by a continuous forward market |
| Liquidity | The most liquid fertilizer market physically, but cleared paper is thin: CME swap volumes are tiny next to crude oil or CBOT grains |
Where It Trades
approximate split of price-discovery and hedging activity, 2025
Supply and Demand
Top producers
- China: the largest producer, but export quotas and pauses from 2023 to 2025 sharply cut its presence in the seaborne market
- India: a large producer in its own right yet still the world's biggest importer
- Russia: a major low-cost producer on cheap domestic gas
- Middle East: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Egypt anchor the export trade on stranded gas
- Indonesia and Nigeria: Southeast Asian supply plus fast-growing African capacity (Dangote, Indorama)
World production is roughly 175 to 185 million tonnes a year. Roughly 35 to 45 percent of seaborne urea exports load from the Persian Gulf, which is why the 2026 Strait of Hormuz disruption hit the market so hard. Gas feedstock cost, not mining, sets the floor.
Top consumers
- India: the largest importer, with state tenders that set the global price
- China: the largest consumer, mostly self-supplied
- Brazil: the dominant import market for the Americas
- United States, European Union, Southeast Asia
Major uses
- Direct field application on grains, especially rice, wheat, and corn: the overwhelming majority
- Blended into NPK and bulk-blend fertilizers
- Technical and industrial: AdBlue and diesel exhaust fluid (DEF), urea-formaldehyde resins
- Animal feed supplement (ruminant protein)
What Moves the Price
- Natural gas prices, which set 60 to 80 percent of production cost
- Chinese export policy: quotas, pauses, and price floors
- India's state urea tenders, the single largest demand events
- Persian Gulf supply and shipping, exposed to the Strait of Hormuz
- The northern-hemisphere and Brazilian planting calendars
- New capacity from Nigeria (Dangote, Indorama) and the Gulf
- Grain prices, which set how much farmers can pay for nitrogen
Moments That Made the Market
1913
The Haber-Bosch ammonia process is commercialized at BASF, making synthetic nitrogen and ultimately urea possible at industrial scale.
1922
BASF begins the first large-scale industrial urea production from ammonia and carbon dioxide.
2008
Urea spikes above 800 dollars a tonne in the commodity supercycle, then collapses in the financial crisis.
2021
Europe's gas crisis idles ammonia and urea plants across the continent; prices begin a climb toward records.
2022
Urea reaches roughly 900 dollars a tonne after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sends European gas to extremes.
2023
China begins restricting urea exports through quotas to protect domestic supply; prices fall into a 300 to 400 dollar range.
2025
China reopens exports in May under a strict quota with a reported 660-dollar price floor, then widens the quota in August; tight Chinese availability keeps prices firm.
2026
The Strait of Hormuz crisis disrupts Gulf gas and shipping; Qatar suspends urea and ammonia output and urea runs back above 850 dollars a tonne by April, the highest since 2022.
What Changed Since the 2010 Handbook Era
- Chinese export policy became the dominant swing factor, replacing a market that before 2020 priced cleanly off gas and freight.
- The 2021-2022 European gas crisis proved that nitrogen is gas in disguise, idling whole continents of capacity.
- New African and Gulf capacity (Dangote, Indorama, expansions in Oman and Saudi Arabia) began diluting Chinese dominance of the export trade.
- The 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis exposed how much of seaborne urea, more than a third, loads from a single chokepoint.
- Diesel exhaust fluid (AdBlue / DEF) turned a slice of urea into a transport-fuel additive linked to vehicle emissions rules.