Phosphate (DAP)

Phosphate fertilizer is a small-volume, high-value corner of the nutrient world, and DAP (diammonium phosphate) is its benchmark product. The chain runs from phosphate rock, dug from sedimentary deposits, through phosphoric acid, made by dissolving the rock in sulphuric acid, to the finished granular fertilizers DAP and MAP (monoammonium phosphate), which combine the acid with ammonia. Combined DAP and MAP output is roughly 70 to 75 million tonnes a year. Because the recipe needs both sulphur (for the acid) and ammonia, phosphate is tied simultaneously to the oil and gas processing markets that produce sulphur and to the gas market that produces ammonia.

Supply is geologically concentrated. Morocco's state producer OCP sits on the majority of the world's phosphate rock reserves and is the dominant exporter, selling DAP and MAP to Europe, Brazil, India, and beyond. China is a huge producer too, but Beijing curbed phosphate exports from 2023 onward to protect domestic supply and to keep rock for its booming lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery industry, which competes for the same purified phosphoric acid. Those Chinese curbs, more than any single demand surge, drove DAP higher through 2024 and 2025. The United States (Mosaic), Russia (PhosAgro), and Saudi Arabia (Ma'aden) round out the major exporters.

Prices have climbed steadily. The World Bank's fertilizer index rose in 2025 with DAP among the leaders, OCP selling December cargoes around 680 to 685 dollars FOB and January cargoes to Europe at 750 to 760 dollars CFR. The 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis added a sulphur and ammonia squeeze on top, since Gulf refining and gas processing supply much of the world's sulphur, lifting DAP through the spring: India's state buyer secured more than a million tonnes at around 930 to 935 dollars a tonne CFR in May 2026, with OCP cargoes netting back to the high 800s FOB Morocco. New OCP capacity targeted for later in the decade should eventually ease the tightness.