RINs
USOPIS / Argus (US RFS)
Renewable Identification Numbers: the biofuel-blending credits that sit on top of every gallon of US fuel, set by an EPA mandate and swinging from pennies to dollars on a rule change.
Renewable Identification Numbers: the biofuel-blending credits that sit on top of every gallon of US fuel, set by an EPA mandate and swinging from pennies to dollars on a rule change.
Can it be a contract?
8 of 8 tests passed
- Written grade spec: passes. A published specification a buyer will accept sight-unseen.Published grade specification
- Fungible: passes. Any lot of the grade substitutes for any other.Any lot substitutes for another
- Dispatchable: passes. Available at the cadence the buyer needs. Storage is only one route to that; generation and continuous flow are others, which is why power trades without being storable.Available on demand from stock or flow
- Delivery point: passes. A point the trade already uses can stand for the market. A contract cannot invent a delivery location; it has to adopt one the physical flows already run through. The clearest proof that a point qualifies is a liquid basis market against it: every other US gas hub quotes as a spread to Henry Hub, every ISO node settles against its hub, and grades quote as differentials to Brent. Where a point has no basis market quoting off it, it is not really the delivery point.A delivery point the trade already uses
- Observable spot price: passes. Somebody publishes or assesses a price the trade recognises.Continuously quoted
- Many on both sides: passes. Enough independent buyers and sellers that no one party sets the price.Many independent buyers and sellers
- Volatility worth hedging: passes. Prices move enough that someone needs to transfer the risk.Policy risk makes it move like a commodity
- Enforceable venue: passes. Contracts can be written and enforced where both sides trust the courts. This is separate from the delivery point and often decides it: Russia and Saudi Arabia sit on enormous, long-established physical flows and no forward settles in either, because the flow test passes and the law test does not.Enforceable in a trusted jurisdiction
Forward market: Yes
Listed on ICE and CME, thin against spot
The purest constructed commodity here. A regulator defined the unit, capped the supply and made it enforceable, and a deep market followed.
Hover a test for its definition, or compare all 130 markets →
RINs generated
about 25 billion
as of 2024
Categories
D6, D4, D5, D3 (nested)
structural
Price range
cents to roughly $2 per RIN
2024-2025
Priced by
OPIS / Argus; thin ICE & CME futures
as of 2026
A RIN is a 38-digit serial number generated for every gallon of renewable fuel produced or imported under the US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), and it is one of the largest environmental-credit markets in the world. The number rides along with the physical gallon until the fuel is blended, then "separates" and trades on its own until an obligated party retires it for compliance. The unit is one ethanol-equivalent gallon, and roughly 25 billion RINs were generated in 2024.
The mechanism is a federal blending mandate. Each year the EPA sets Renewable Volume Obligations, and refiners and fuel importers must retire enough RINs to cover their share. The categories nest: D6 conventional (corn ethanol), D4 biomass-based diesel, D5 advanced biofuel, and D3 cellulosic, with higher tiers able to satisfy lower obligations. Prices range from cents to around two dollars and are intensely political, because the Small Refinery Exemptions that let small refiners opt out can dump freed credits into the market and crush the price overnight.
RINs trade mostly over the counter, bilaterally between producers, blenders, refiners, and brokers, and are assessed by price-reporting agencies (OPIS, Argus, Platts) rather than discovered on an exchange, though ICE and CME have listed thin RIN futures since 2018 and ICE added physically-delivered contracts in 2025. It is the credit market that ties US transport fuel to corn, soybean oil, and the biofuel complex.
How It Trades
| Venue | Over the counter, PRA-assessed (OPIS, Argus, Platts); thin futures on ICE and CME |
| Benchmark contract | OPIS / Argus D6, D4, D5, D3 RIN assessments |
| Contract size | One RIN = one ethanol-equivalent gallon of renewable fuel |
| Price terms | US dollars (cents to ~$2) per RIN |
| Settlement | Credits retired in the EPA EMTS registry; OTC cash settlement |
| Typical curve | No real forward curve; driven by the annual RVO, blend economics, and exemption policy |
| Liquidity | A large OTC market by value; listed futures exist on ICE and CME but are thin against spot |
Supply and Demand
Top producers
- Ethanol producers (D6 RINs)
- Biodiesel and renewable diesel producers (D4)
- Advanced and cellulosic biofuel producers (D5, D3)
- Importers of qualifying renewable fuel
RINs are generated per gallon of renewable fuel; supply is the volume of biofuel produced plus the EPA mandate that creates demand for it.
Top consumers
- Petroleum refiners (the obligated parties)
- Fuel importers
- Merchant blenders and traders
Major uses
- Compliance: retiring RINs against the Renewable Volume Obligation
- Hedging future compliance cost
- Speculative trading on mandate and exemption news
What Moves the Price
- The EPA annual Renewable Volume Obligation and any mid-year change
- Small Refinery Exemptions (which free up credits and depress prices)
- The blend wall and gasoline/diesel demand
- Biofuel feedstock costs (corn, soybean oil)
- Court rulings and administration policy on the RFS
Moments That Made the Market
2005-2007
The Renewable Fuel Standard is created and expanded, establishing the RIN system.
2013
D6 RINs spike about a hundredfold in "RINsanity" as blending hits the ten-percent wall.
2018
ICE and CME list RIN futures; Small Refinery Exemptions are granted en masse, depressing prices.
2024-2025
Roughly 25 billion RINs generated in 2024; a fresh wave of exemptions revives supply-shock fears.
What Changed Since the 2010 Era
- A blending mandate created one of the largest environmental-credit markets.
- Small Refinery Exemptions became the dominant political swing factor.
- Listed futures arrived in 2018, though spot OTC still dominates.