Polysilicon
GFEX (China)
The refined silicon that becomes solar panels, a market China almost entirely owns, with a brand-new futures contract launched at the bottom of a brutal crash.
Top Producers
approximate share of world polysilicon production, 2024 (indicative)
Main Uses
indicative split of polysilicon demand
Use
feedstock for solar PV panels
structural
China share
roughly 93 percent of world output
as of 2024
Futures venue
Guangzhou (GFEX), 3 t/lot, launched Dec 2024
as of 2026
Price crash
about 230,000 to 42,000 yuan/tonne (2023-25)
2023-2025
Polysilicon is highly refined silicon, purified from ordinary metallurgical silicon, and it is the feedstock for solar panels: melted and grown into ingots, sliced into wafers, and built into the cells that make photovoltaic modules. A smaller, much higher-purity grade goes into semiconductors, but solar overwhelmingly drives the market. It sits in the battery and critical-materials group as one of the foundational inputs of the energy transition.
China owns this market almost completely, producing roughly 93 percent of the world's polysilicon in 2024, with nine of the ten largest producers Chinese. That concentration, plus a wave of new capacity, produced one of the most brutal commodity busts of the decade: polysilicon collapsed from around 230,000 yuan a tonne in early 2023 to roughly 42,000 by mid-2025, far below many producers' cash cost, before a modest rebound. Solar oversupply turned a strategic material into a money-loser.
The futures market is the newest of any major commodity: the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) polysilicon contract, launched in December 2024, 3 tonnes a lot, quoted in yuan per tonne, benchmarked to N-type solar-grade material. It gave the solar supply chain, from polysilicon makers to wafer and module producers, a way to hedge a price that had been in freefall.
How It Trades
| Venue | Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) |
| Benchmark contract | GFEX polysilicon future, launched December 2024 |
| Contract size | 3 metric tonnes per lot |
| Price terms | Chinese yuan per tonne |
| Settlement | Physical delivery in China (N-type benchmark grade) |
| Typical curve | Driven by solar installation demand and the chronic capacity glut |
| Liquidity | New but active; the world's first polysilicon futures, alongside GFEX industrial silicon |
Supply and Demand
Top producers
- China: roughly 93 percent of world output (Tongwei, GCL, Daqo, Xinte)
- Germany and the United States: Wacker Chemie and a few others
- A small remainder elsewhere in Asia
Production is overwhelmingly Chinese; the top four producers are about two-thirds of output.
Top consumers
- Solar wafer and cell makers (overwhelmingly in China)
- The global solar PV module supply chain
- Semiconductor makers (a small, high-purity niche)
Major uses
- Solar photovoltaic cells and modules (the dominant use)
- Semiconductor-grade silicon wafers (small share, higher purity)
What Moves the Price
- Global solar installation growth and module demand
- Chinese polysilicon capacity and the oversupply cycle
- Electricity costs (refining is power-intensive)
- Trade policy and tariffs on Chinese solar products
- Industrial silicon (metallurgical-grade) feedstock costs
Moments That Made the Market
2010s
China builds dominant polysilicon and solar manufacturing capacity.
2023-2025
A massive capacity glut crashes polysilicon roughly 80 percent below 2023 highs.
Dec 2024
GFEX launches the world's first polysilicon futures and options.
What Changed Since the 2010 Era
- Polysilicon became a tradeable commodity for the first time in late 2024.
- A solar oversupply bust pushed prices below cash cost.
- China's near-total control of supply became a strategic flashpoint.