Olive Oil
Poolred / cash market
A Mediterranean crop concentrated in Spain, with no live futures market and a 2024 drought spike that tripled prices.
Top Producers
share of the 2024/25 crop (IOC); shares swing by year, this was a high-output year
Top Consumers
approximate share of consumption (IOC 2024/25)
Main Uses
indicative; olive oil is overwhelmingly a food product
Top Exporters
approximate share of 2024/25 export volume (IOC); Italy largely re-exports after blending
Top Importers
the US is the largest single importer by volume; Italy imports bulk oil to blend and re-export
World production
about 2.6 Mt (2023/24) to 3.6 Mt (2024/25)
as of 2024/25
Spain's share
about 40 percent; the EU about two thirds
as of 2024/25
Price swing
about 9,000 euros/t (early 2024) to about 4,200 euros/t (2025-26)
as of 2026
Futures market
none live; MFAO closed in 2014
as of 2026
Olive oil is an ancient Mediterranean crop whose production is extraordinarily concentrated. World output was about 2.6 million tonnes in the drought-hit 2023/24 crop year, recovering to about 3.6 million tonnes in 2024/25. The European Union alone is roughly two thirds of the total, and Spain, centered on Andalusia, produces about 40 percent of the world in a good year. Italy, Greece, Tunisia (the largest non-EU producer), Turkey, Portugal, and Morocco follow. Output swings violently year to year because olive trees are alternate-bearing, heavy one year and light the next, and because the crop is acutely exposed to Mediterranean drought and heat.
The defining recent event was the 2022 to 2024 price spike. Consecutive droughts in Spain roughly halved its crop, and because Spain is the swing producer, world prices exploded: Spanish extra virgin at origin reached records near 9 euros per kilogram, about 9,000 euros per tonne, in late 2023 and early 2024, and retail prices doubled or tripled, prompting a wave of bulk-oil thefts. A strong 2024/25 harvest then pulled prices back by roughly half through 2025, to around 4 to 4.5 euros per kilogram by early 2026.
There is no live olive oil futures market. The one serious attempt, Spain's MFAO in Jaen, launched in 2004 as the only olive oil futures exchange in the world and closed in 2014, unable to build liquidity or adapt to new European regulation. Olive oil resists a standardized contract because grade and quality vary sharply (extra virgin, virgin, refined, pomace), origin and varietal premiums matter, and the market is plagued by fraud and adulteration. Pricing instead runs through Spanish reference quotations, above all the Poolred system out of Jaen, plus the European Commission's monitoring. Italy plays a distinctive double role as both the second-largest producer and the largest importer, buying bulk Spanish and Tunisian oil to blend, bottle, and re-export at a premium.
How It Trades
| Venue | None active: a physical cash market on Spanish reference quotes |
| Benchmark contract | No live future (MFAO closed in 2014); priced off the Spanish Poolred index and EU monitoring |
| Contract size | Physical; bulk oil in tonnes |
| Price terms | Euros per tonne or per kilogram at origin |
| Settlement | Physical bulk and bottled trade |
| Typical curve | No forward curve; prices are set by the current harvest and Spanish origin quotes |
| Liquidity | No exchange liquidity. Quality variation, origin premiums, and adulteration risk have defeated every futures attempt |
Supply and Demand
Top producers
- Spain: about 1.4 million tonnes, roughly 40 percent of the world (Andalusia)
- Turkey: about 0.5 million tonnes
- Tunisia: about 0.34 million tonnes, the largest non-EU producer
- Greece and Italy: about 0.25 million tonnes each
- Portugal and Morocco: the next tier
The EU is roughly two thirds of world output. Shares swing hugely by year because olive trees alternate-bear and the crop is drought-exposed.
Top consumers
- European Union (Spain, Italy, Greece lead per-capita)
- United States (the third-largest national consumer, low per-capita)
- Turkey and Morocco
Major uses
- Cooking and dressing, the Mediterranean diet, mostly extra virgin and virgin grades
- Refined and pomace oils for cooking and food manufacturing
- A small share to cosmetics, soaps, and personal care
What Moves the Price
- Spanish (Andalusian) weather, drought, and heat at flowering and fruit set
- The alternate-bearing biennial cycle of olive trees
- Energy and input costs
- Fraud and adulteration episodes, which periodically hit confidence
- Spain's swing-producer role, which turns a bad Spanish harvest into a global shock
Moments That Made the Market
Antiquity
Olives are cultivated across the Mediterranean for thousands of years.
1959
The International Olive Council is founded to set grade standards.
2004-2014
Spain's MFAO trades the world's only olive oil futures, then closes for lack of liquidity.
2023-2024
Back-to-back Spanish droughts drive record prices near 9 euros per kilogram.
2024-2025
A recovery harvest roughly halves prices.
What Changed Since the 2010 Handbook Era
- The 2023-2024 drought produced the most severe olive oil price crisis in modern memory.
- The only olive oil futures market closed, leaving a pure physical cash trade.
- Spanish climate variability became the dominant global price driver.