Live Cattle
CME Group
Record beef prices on the smallest American herd since 1951, with a flesh-eating parasite closing the border.
Top Producers
share of 2026 world beef production
Top Consumers
share of 2026 world beef consumption
Main Uses
US beef use by channel
Top Exporters
share of 2026 world beef and buffalo-meat exports
Top Importers
share of 2026 world beef imports
US herd
roughly 86.7 million head, smallest since 1951
as of January 2025
Futures record
above $2.50 per pound
as of April 2026
Mexican feeder imports in normal years
roughly 1 million head
as of 2025
Herd-rebuild lag
roughly three years from heifer retention to slaughter supply
as of 2025
Live cattle futures price the finished steers and heifers leaving US feedlots for slaughter, 40,000 pounds per contract quoted in cents per pound, and the mid-2020s gave the contract the strongest bull market in its history. The US cattle herd peaked near 132 million head in 1975 and has contracted in long cycles ever since; the January 2025 inventory of roughly 86.7 million head was the smallest since 1951. Years of drought across the Plains forced ranchers to liquidate cows, and the biology is unforgiving: even after ranchers begin retaining heifers, no new supply reaches the packing plant for nearly three years. Futures broke records repeatedly through 2024 and 2025, trading above roughly $2.40 per pound in late 2025 and above $2.50 per pound by April 2026, while retail beef prices set all-time highs and packer margins inverted.
A new shock arrived from the south. New World screwworm, a parasitic fly whose larvae eat living flesh and which the US had eradicated by 1966 using the sterile-insect technique, re-emerged northward through Central America and into Mexico in 2024 and 2025. The US suspended imports of Mexican feeder cattle, roughly a million head a year in normal times, in November 2024, and closed the border again in May and July 2025 as detections moved closer, tightening feeder supply further and adding a biosecurity premium to the whole complex. The cycle's other features are familiar: the 2019 Tyson Holcomb plant fire and the 2020 COVID packing shutdowns both showed how concentrated the four-firm packing sector is, and cash-versus-futures convergence debates keep the contract's physical delivery mechanism, live animals delivered to approved stockyards, permanently under review. Herd rebuilding, whenever drought and rancher economics finally allow it, will first tighten supply more as heifers are withheld from feedlots.
How It Trades
| Venue | CME Group (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) |
| Benchmark contract | Live Cattle futures (LE) |
| Contract size | 40,000 pounds of live steers (roughly 35 head) |
| Price terms | US cents per pound |
| Settlement | Physical delivery of live cattle at approved stockyards and slaughter plants |
| Typical curve | Not a storage market: each month prices its own animal supply; deferred months price the herd cycle and feed costs |
| Liquidity | Deep and commercial; roughly 60,000 to 90,000 contracts a day with feeder cattle and boxed-beef markets alongside |
Where It Trades
approximate share of global live cattle futures volume, 2025
Supply and Demand
Top producers
- United States: largest beef producer; January 2025 herd roughly 86.7 million head, the smallest since 1951
- Brazil: largest beef exporter, herd above 230 million head
- European Union
- China (large herd, growing imports)
- India (carabeef), Argentina, and Australia: major exporters
The futures contract prices US fed cattle specifically; world beef trade matters mainly through import competition and export demand for US beef.
Top consumers
- United States (largest beef consumer)
- China (largest import growth market)
- Brazil
- European Union
- Japan and South Korea (premium US beef export markets)
Major uses
- Boxed beef for retail and food service
- Ground beef, the volume product of the US market
- Hides, tallow (a renewable-diesel feedstock), and offal export
What Moves the Price
- US herd size and the cattle cycle: heifer retention versus liquidation
- Plains drought and pasture conditions, which force or delay liquidation
- New World screwworm spread and US-Mexico border closures
- Corn prices, the feedlot's main cost
- Packer capacity, margins, and the four-firm concentration of the US industry
- Consumer beef demand and the beef-to-pork-to-chicken price ratio
- Export demand from Japan, South Korea, and China
- Monthly USDA Cattle on Feed reports and the semi-annual herd inventory
Moments That Made the Market
1964
CME launches live cattle, the first futures contract on a live animal.
1966
The US completes screwworm eradication using the sterile-insect technique, a victory undone six decades later.
2003
The first US BSE ("mad cow") case closes export markets overnight; Japan and South Korea take years to reopen.
2014
A previous cycle low in the herd drives cattle futures to then-record highs.
2019-2020
The Tyson Holcomb fire and COVID plant shutdowns expose packing-sector concentration; cash and futures dislocate.
2024
The January herd count of roughly 87.2 million head is the smallest since 1951; the record bull market accelerates.
2025
Screwworm detections in Mexico close the US border to feeder imports repeatedly; futures trade above roughly $2.40 per pound.
What Changed Since the 2010 Handbook Era
- The herd shrank to 74-year lows, producing a structural bull market unlike the demand-led rallies of the 2010s.
- Screwworm returned to North America after six decades, making animal biosecurity a daily price driver.
- Packing concentration became a political issue after 2019-2020, with new entrant plants slowly adding capacity.
- Beef demand proved far more price-inelastic than the industry assumed; consumers paid record prices without trading down.
- Tallow's value as renewable-diesel feedstock linked cattle by-products to energy markets.