CheCheeseAgriculture
Agriculture
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Cheese

CME / EU

The biggest single use of milk, and the price that sets what American dairy farmers earn.

The biggest single use of milk, and the price that sets what American dairy farmers earn.

Top Producers

share of 2024 production (USDA/Statista); the EU bloc is the largest at about 47 percent

United States: 25%United States 25%Germany: 9%Germany 9%France: 8%France 8%Italy: 8%Italy 8%Rest of world: 33%Rest of world 33%Rest of EU: 13%Rest of EU 13%Netherlands: 4%Netherlands 4%

Top Consumers

approximate share of consumption (USDA/trade data 2024)

EU: 45%EU 45%Rest of world: 31%Rest of world 31%Mexico: 2%Mexico 2%Japan: 3%Japan 3%United States: 19%United States 19%

Main Uses

industry estimate; no single official global split exists

Retail / table: 50%Retail / table 50%Industrial / processed: 20%Industrial / processed 20%Food service: 30%Food service 30%

Top Exporters

share of 2024 cheese export value; the top five are about 56 percent (WorldsTopExports)

Germany: 15%Germany 15%Italy: 12%Italy 12%Netherlands: 11%Netherlands 11%France: 10%France 10%Rest of world: 44%Rest of world 44%United States: 8%United States 8%

Top Importers

share of 2024 cheese imports by volume; much EU trade is intra-bloc (WITS 2024)

Germany: 12%Germany 12%Japan: 9%Japan 9%Italy: 8%Italy 8%United Kingdom: 7%United Kingdom 7%United States: 7%United States 7%Mexico: 6%Mexico 6%Rest of world: 51%Rest of world 51%

Can it be a contract?

7 of 8 tests passed

  • Written grade spec: passes. A published specification a buyer will accept sight-unseen.Published grade specification
  • Fungible: partly. Any lot of the grade substitutes for any other.Blocks and barrels are separate contracts
  • Dispatchable: passes. Available at the cadence the buyer needs. Storage is only one route to that; generation and continuous flow are others, which is why power trades without being storable.Available on demand from stock or flow
  • Delivery point: passes. A point the trade already uses can stand for the market. A contract cannot invent a delivery location; it has to adopt one the physical flows already run through. The clearest proof that a point qualifies is a liquid basis market against it: every other US gas hub quotes as a spread to Henry Hub, every ISO node settles against its hub, and grades quote as differentials to Brent. Where a point has no basis market quoting off it, it is not really the delivery point.A delivery point the trade already uses
  • Observable spot price: passes. Somebody publishes or assesses a price the trade recognises.Continuously quoted
  • Many on both sides: passes. Enough independent buyers and sellers that no one party sets the price.Many independent buyers and sellers
  • Volatility worth hedging: passes. Prices move enough that someone needs to transfer the risk.Moves enough to need hedging
  • Enforceable venue: passes. Contracts can be written and enforced where both sides trust the courts. This is separate from the delivery point and often decides it: Russia and Saudi Arabia sit on enormous, long-established physical flows and no forward settles in either, because the flow test passes and the law test does not.Enforceable in a trusted jurisdiction

Forward market: Yes

Passes as a contract on a storable form of milk, which is exactly why the dairy complex trades products rather than milk.

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World production

roughly 26 million tonnes

as of 2024

Largest producer

EU bloc (about 47 percent); US the largest single country (about 6.5 Mt)

as of 2024

Why it matters

CME spot cheese sets the US Class III milk price

as of 2026

Top non-EU importer

Japan

as of 2024

Cheese is the largest single use of milk and the most valuable traded dairy product. World production was roughly 26 million tonnes in 2024. The European Union is by far the largest producing region at about 10.7 million tonnes, close to half the global total, led by Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands; the United States is the largest single country at about 6.5 million tonnes, concentrated in Wisconsin and California.

In the United States cheese is not just an end product, it is the price-setter for the milk most farmers sell. The CME spot cheese market, 40-pound Cheddar blocks and 500-pound barrels, feeds directly into the Class III milk price formula under the Federal Milk Marketing Orders. When block and barrel prices move, Class III milk moves with them, which is why cheese trading sits at the center of US dairy risk management. The CME Cheese (Cash-Settled) future settles to the monthly weighted average of those block and barrel prices.

Trade is dominated by Europe, with the US a fast-growing exporter. The five biggest exporters by value, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, France, and the United States, generate well over half of world cheese export value, while Japan is the standout large buyer outside the EU. Consumption keeps rising structurally as incomes grow, making cheese one of the few dairy products in secular demand growth even as fluid-milk drinking declines.

Cheese is also the star of one of the great government-stockpile stories: "government cheese." Through the 1970s the US propped up milk prices by having the Commodity Credit Corporation buy surplus milk and convert it into storable cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk. High guaranteed prices drove chronic overproduction, and by 1981 the federal cheese hoard had swollen past 500 million pounds, more than two pounds for every American, much of it aging in refrigerated limestone caves around Kansas City and Springfield, Missouri, where the rock stays naturally cool. Facing the absurdity of food rotting in storage, with the agriculture secretary holding up a mouldy five-pound block and admitting "we can't find a market for it," the Reagan administration began giving it away to the poor in late 1981, the orange-yellow blocks distributed through what became the Temporary Emergency Food Assistance Program. "Government cheese" entered the culture as a symbol of both the safety net and farm-policy folly. (A viral claim that 1.4 billion pounds of government cheese still sits in a Missouri cave is a myth: the caves are real, but today's cheese in them is overwhelmingly privately owned, not a federal mountain.) The stockpile was drawn down as price supports were cut through the 1980s and 1990s, and cheese is why dairy gets stored at all: it locks up both the fat and the protein of surplus milk in an edible, giveaway-able form, which powder cannot do.

How It Trades

VenueCME (US) and EU quotations
Benchmark contractCME Cheese (Cash-Settled) future; CME spot Cheddar blocks and barrels
Contract size20,000 lbs
Price termsUS cents per pound
SettlementCash-settled to the monthly weighted average of US Cheddar 40-lb block and 500-lb barrel prices
Typical curveDriven by the milk available for cheese vats and by the block-barrel spread, which can diverge sharply
LiquidityThe CME daily spot block-and-barrel auction is the key physical reference because it sets Class III milk; the cash-settled future is moderately traded

Supply and Demand

Top producers

  1. European Union: about 10.7 million tonnes, the largest bloc (Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands)
  2. United States: about 6.5 million tonnes, the largest single country (Wisconsin, California)
  3. Then Germany, France, and Italy individually as the largest EU producers

The EU as a bloc is the largest producer at about 47 percent of world output; the pie below splits it by member state, so the US shows as the largest single country.

Top consumers

  1. European Union (highest per-capita consumption, led by Germany, France, Italy)
  2. United States
  3. Japan (the largest buyer outside the EU)
  4. Rising consumption across the Middle East, Latin America, and East Asia

Major uses

  • Retail and table cheese for consumers
  • Food service: pizza, restaurants, and quick-service chains
  • Industrial and processed-cheese ingredients

What Moves the Price

  • Milk availability for cheese vats
  • New US cheese-plant capacity coming online
  • Domestic and export demand growth
  • The block-barrel spread
  • Class III milk economics, which cheese itself sets

Moments That Made the Market

1990s

CME spot block-and-barrel cheese trading becomes the basis for the US Class III milk price.

2024

Record barrel cheese near $2.62 per pound pulls Class III milk to a September high near $23 per cwt.

2024-2025

A wave of new US cheese plants adds processing capacity.

What Changed Since the 2010 Era

  • US cheese capacity expanded sharply, turning the country into a fast-growing exporter.
  • Cheese demand kept rising even as fluid-milk drinking fell.
  • Block-barrel volatility became a central feature of US dairy risk management.

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