Tree Nuts
Cash market (no futures)
Almonds to hazelnuts: a set of high-value orchard crops, each concentrated in one or two origins, and none with a futures market.
Top Producers
share of world tree-nut production by type, kernel basis (INC 2024)
Top Consumers
approximate share of tree-nut consumption (INC 2024)
Main Uses
indicative split of tree-nut use
Top Exporters
approximate share of tree-nut exports; the US leads on almonds, pistachios, and walnuts (INC 2024)
Top Importers
approximate share of tree-nut imports (INC 2024)
Largest tree nut
almonds, about 26 percent of tree-nut production
as of 2024
Most concentrated
California ~80 percent of almonds; Turkey ~two-thirds of hazelnuts
as of 2024
Cashew split
West Africa grows, Vietnam shells (~a third of kernel exports)
as of 2024
Futures market
none for any tree nut; all priced off boards, auctions, and contracts
as of 2026
Tree nuts are a large, high-value set of orchard crops, together tens of billions of dollars in annual trade, sold as snacks, confectionery and bakery ingredients, and increasingly as plant-based milks and butters. Five dominate: almonds are the biggest by both production and value at roughly a quarter of all tree nuts, then cashews at about a fifth, walnuts at about a fifth, pistachios just behind, and hazelnuts at roughly a tenth. Demand has grown for two decades on snacking and health positioning, with almond "milk" turning the largest nut into a dairy substitute.
The striking thing about tree nuts is how concentrated each one is in a single origin. California grows roughly 80 percent of the world's almonds and is the largest pistachio producer (with Iran) and the top exporter of high-quality walnuts (though China grows the most). West Africa, led by Ivory Coast, grows most of the world's raw cashews, but because shelling them is hazardous and labor-intensive the nuts are shipped to Asia, above all Vietnam, to be processed and re-exported. Turkey grows about two-thirds of the world's hazelnuts on its Black Sea coast, mostly for the chocolate industry, where a single buyer, Ferrero, takes roughly a quarter of the crop. The recurring shocks are agronomic: California water and the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, the alternate-bearing cycle that swings pistachio supply from year to year, and Black Sea frost that can halve the hazelnut crop.
None of the tree nuts has a futures market. They store well as kernels, but they are too varietal, too handler-dominated, and too origin-specific to standardize into a deliverable contract, so each is priced through grower-handler contracts and a distinct reference: the Almond Board of California's monthly Position Report, origin farmgate floor prices for cashews, California bargaining-association field prices for walnuts, and the Turkish state board's support price for hazelnuts. Prices swing on weather, water, disease, and trade policy, with India a swing export market for almonds and walnuts whose tariffs can move California prices sharply.
How It Trades
| Venue | No futures market; cash and grower-handler contracts, producer boards, and auctions |
| Benchmark contract | None; e.g. the Almond Board Position Report, cashew farmgate floors, the Turkish TMO hazelnut price |
| Contract size | Physical; priced per pound or per kilogram by type and grade |
| Price terms | US dollars per pound (US nuts); local currency or USD by origin |
| Settlement | Physical; sold by handlers and processors under contract |
| Typical curve | No forward curve; crop-year inventory cycles plus alternate-bearing (pistachios) and frost (hazelnuts) swings |
| Liquidity | No exchange liquidity for any tree nut; varietal and origin heterogeneity and handler or board pricing keep them all cash markets |
Supply and Demand
Top producers
- Almonds: the largest tree nut; California about 80 percent of world output
- Cashews: West Africa grows the raw nuts (Ivory Coast largest), Asia (Vietnam) shells them
- Walnuts: China the largest producer, the US the top exporter
- Pistachios: the US and Iran, strongly alternate-bearing
- Hazelnuts: Turkey about two-thirds, on the Black Sea coast
Shares below are by nut type, not by country; each individual nut is concentrated in one or two origins.
Top consumers
- United States (the largest consuming market overall)
- European Union (a major buyer of every tree nut)
- India (the biggest almond destination; a growing walnut buyer)
- China (the biggest pistachio buyer; growing across the board)
Major uses
- Snacking: raw, roasted, and salted
- Confectionery, bakery, and chocolate (hazelnuts above all)
- Plant-based "milk" and butters (almonds, cashews)
- Ingredients and pastes
The Major Tree Nuts
| Nut | Share of tree nuts | Where it is grown | Defining fact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almonds | about 26 percent | California (~80 percent) | The biggest tree nut; thirsty orchards and the largest managed bee pollination on earth; priced off the Almond Board report |
| Cashews | about 21 percent | West Africa grows, Asia (Vietnam) shells | Grown where shelling is too costly, processed where labor is cheap |
| Walnuts | about 20 percent | China grows most, California exports best | A 2022 price crash to a 1987 low, then a sharp rebound |
| Pistachios | about 19 percent | US (California) and Iran | Strongly alternate-bearing; China the biggest buyer |
| Hazelnuts | about 9 percent | Turkey (~two-thirds, Black Sea) | Bought mostly by chocolate makers; Ferrero takes ~a quarter of Turkey's crop |
Each big tree nut is concentrated in one or two origins and priced off a different reference. None trades on a futures exchange.
What Moves the Price
- California water availability and the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act
- Weather at the origins: drought, spring frost (hazelnuts), bloom-time rain (almonds)
- The alternate-bearing cycle, especially for pistachios
- Trade policy and tariffs, with India a swing buyer for almonds and walnuts
- The strength of the US dollar
- Snacking and plant-based demand
Moments That Made the Market
1980s onward
California expands into the world's nut superpower for almonds, pistachios, and walnuts.
2000s-2010s
Cashew processing concentrates in Vietnam; almond "milk" turns the largest nut into a dairy substitute.
2022
A glut and a strong dollar crush almond and walnut prices (walnuts to a 1987 low).
2024-2025
Prices recover on tighter crops; an April 2025 Black Sea frost spikes hazelnuts; India lifts its walnut tariff.
What Changed Since the 2010 Handbook Era
- California became the dominant origin for almonds, pistachios, and walnuts.
- Almond "milk" and other plant-based products became a major demand engine.
- Cashew processing concentrated in Vietnam while West Africa grew the raw nuts.
- Tariffs (India) and recurring water and frost shocks became the main price swings.