Steel
SHFE / CME / LME
The largest metal market on earth by far, made in China, split between the blast furnace and the electric arc, and priced off rebar and hot-rolled coil.
Top Producers
share of 2024 crude steel production (worldsteel); China is about 53 to 54 percent
Top Consumers
approximate share of world steel demand (worldsteel 2024); China is about half
Main Uses
steel use by end-use sector, indicative (worldsteel); construction is firmly about half
Top Exporters
approximate share of finished-steel exports; China set a record 110.7 Mt in 2024 (GACC/SteelOrbis)
Top Importers
approximate; the EU and ASEAN are the largest net buyers, the US a large importer behind its tariffs
World production
roughly 1.88 billion tonnes
as of 2024
China's share
about half of output and demand (~1,005 Mt)
as of 2024
Production routes
blast furnace ~70 percent, electric arc ~30 percent (about 70 percent in the US)
as of 2024
China steel exports
record 110.7 million tonnes
as of 2024
Carbon footprint
roughly 7 to 9 percent of global CO2
as of 2024
US HRC record
near $1,945 per short ton (Sept 2021)
as of 2021
Steel is the world's most important manufactured metal and, after cement, the second-most-produced material on earth. World crude steel output was roughly 1.88 billion tonnes in 2024, a figure that dwarfs every non-ferrous metal: annual steel tonnage is more than twenty times the combined output of all the base metals (aluminium, copper, zinc, lead, nickel) put together. By value the market is commonly put at roughly 1.2 to 1.8 trillion dollars a year, which makes it one of the largest commodity complexes in the world, second only to crude oil among physical commodities by some measures.
What makes steel distinctive is that it is China's market. China produces roughly half the world's steel, about 1,005 million tonnes in 2024, and consumes a similar share, so the dominant story is Chinese: the post-2021 property downturn has hollowed out construction demand, pushed Chinese mills to a record 110.7 million tonnes of exports in 2024, and driven domestic rebar prices to multi-year lows. Steel is also split two ways no other metal is. It comes in long products (rebar, wire rod, sections, mostly for construction) and flat products (hot-rolled coil, the benchmark, plus cold-rolled, plate, and galvanized, for autos, appliances, and pipe). And it is made by two rival routes: the integrated blast-furnace and basic-oxygen-furnace route that consumes iron ore and coking coal, roughly 70 percent of world output and very carbon-intensive, and the scrap-fed electric-arc-furnace route, about 30 percent globally but roughly 70 percent in the United States and far lower in carbon.
Steel's other distinctive feature is where it trades. Unlike copper or aluminium, its deepest futures liquidity is not in London or New York but in China: Shanghai Futures Exchange rebar and hot-rolled-coil contracts are among the highest-volume commodity futures on the planet and set the Asian tone, while the Dalian exchange trades the raw-material complex of iron ore, coking coal, and coke. The Western benchmarks are CME's US Midwest hot-rolled-coil contract, cash-settled to the CRU index, and the LME's Turkey scrap and rebar contracts. Steel accounts for roughly 7 to 9 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions, the backdrop for the "green steel" push toward hydrogen-based direct-reduced iron and more electric-arc capacity.
How It Trades
| Venue | SHFE (Shanghai) for rebar and hot-rolled coil; CME for US HRC; LME for Turkey scrap and rebar |
| Benchmark contract | SHFE rebar (RB) and hot-rolled coil (HC); CME US Midwest HRC (CRU-settled); LME Steel Scrap CFR Turkey |
| Contract size | CME HRC is 20 short tons; SHFE rebar is 10 tonnes per lot |
| Price terms | US dollars per short ton (CME HRC); Chinese yuan per tonne (SHFE) |
| Settlement | CME HRC cash-settled to the CRU US Midwest index; SHFE contracts physically deliverable; LME ferrous cash-settled to monthly Platts/Argus assessments |
| Typical curve | Tracks Chinese construction demand and the cost of iron ore, coking coal, and scrap; the mill margin over raw materials is the steel analog of a crack or crush spread |
| Liquidity | Unlike most metals, steel's deepest futures liquidity is in China: SHFE rebar is among the highest-volume commodity futures in the world. CME HRC is the main US hedge; most steel still sells mill-to-buyer on contracts |
Where It Trades
approximate split of steel price formation, 2025; China dominates the paper market
Supply and Demand
Top producers
- China: roughly 1,005 million tonnes, about half of world output, now plateauing on the property crisis
- India: roughly 150 million tonnes, the number two and fastest-growing producer
- Japan: roughly 84 million tonnes
- United States: roughly 80 million tonnes, mostly electric-arc
- Russia, South Korea, Germany, Turkey, Brazil, Iran: the next tier
China's chronic overcapacity and its post-2021 property downturn are the central facts of the global market; its record 2024 exports pressured prices worldwide.
Top consumers
- China (roughly half of world demand; its property downturn is the dominant story)
- India (fast-growing construction and infrastructure)
- The European Union, United States, and the rest of Asia
Major uses
- Building and construction, including infrastructure
- Mechanical machinery and equipment
- Automotive and other transport
- Metal products, appliances, and electrical equipment
What Moves the Price
- Chinese property and infrastructure demand and government stimulus, the dominant driver
- Iron ore and coking-coal input costs (the blast-furnace margin)
- Steel scrap prices (the electric-arc margin)
- Trade policy: US Section 232 tariffs (25 percent since 2018, raised to 50 percent in June 2025), EU safeguards and CBAM, anti-dumping cases
- China's export volumes, which flooded the world at a record 110.7 Mt in 2024
- Energy and electricity costs for electric-arc mills
- Decarbonization policy and carbon costs (EU CBAM covers steel from January 2026)
Moments That Made the Market
1850s-1860s
The Bessemer process makes cheap mass-produced steel possible for the first time.
1960s-1970s
The electric-arc "mini-mill," led by Nucor, melts scrap at lower cost and reshapes the US industry.
2000s
China explodes from roughly 15 percent of world output in 2000 to about half within a decade.
2015-2016
A global glut and Chinese overcapacity crisis collapse prices and ignite trade disputes.
2021
A post-COVID demand snapback drives US hot-rolled coil to a record near $1,945 per short ton.
2024
China's property downturn pushes its steel exports to a record 110.7 million tonnes and rebar to multi-year lows.
2025
The US raises Section 232 steel tariffs to 50 percent; the EU CBAM's definitive regime approaches for 2026.
What Changed Since the 2010 Handbook Era
- China went from a minor producer to roughly half of world output and demand, making its property cycle the global price driver.
- The electric-arc, scrap-based route grew to about 30 percent of world output and roughly 70 percent in the US, lowering the industry's carbon intensity.
- Steel's deepest futures liquidity migrated to China (SHFE rebar and HRC), not London or New York.
- Trade policy became a first-order price factor, from US Section 232 tariffs to the EU's carbon border levy.
- Green steel (hydrogen direct-reduced iron) moved from concept to first commercial plants in Europe.